James Madison Jr letter to Edmund Pendleton, 21 February 1788

New York, Feb 21st. 1788. DEAR SIR,

Your representation of the politics of the State coincides with the information from every other quarter. Great fluctuations and divisions of opinion naturally result in Virginia from the causes which you describe, but they are not the less ominous on that account. I have, for some time, been persuaded that the question on which the proposed Constitution must turn is the simple one, whether the Union shall or shall not be continued. There is, in my opinion, no middle ground to be taken. The opposition with some has disunion assuredly for its object^' and with all for its real tendency.

Events have demonstrated that no coalition can ever take place in favor of a new plan among the adversaries to the proposed one. The grounds of objection among the non-signing members of the Convention are by no means the same. The disapproving members who were absent, but who have since published their objections, differ irreconcileably from each of them. The writers against the Constitution are as little agreed with one another; and the principles which have been disclosed by the several minorities, where the Constitution has not been unanimously adopted, are as heterogeneous as can be imagined. That of Massachusetts, as far as I can learn, was averse to any Government that deserv. the name, and, it is certain, looked no farther than to reject the Constitution in toto and return home in triumph. The men of abilities, of property, of character, with every judge, lawyer of eminence, and the clergy of all sects, were, with scarce an exception deserv.g notice, as unanimous in that 'State as the same description of characters are divided and opposed to one another in Virginia. This contrast does not arise from circumstances of local interest, but from causes which will, in my opinion, produce much regret hereafter in the opponents in Virginia, if they should succeed in their opposition.

New Hampshire is now in Convention. It is expected that, the result will be in favor of the Constitution. Rhode Island takes no notice of the matter. New York is much divided. The weight of abilities and of property is on the side of the Constitution. She must go with the Eastern States, let the direction be what it may. By a vessel just from Charleston, we understand that opposition will be made there. Mr. Lowndes is the leader of it.

A British packet brings a picture of affairs in France which indicates some approaching events in that Kingdom, which may almost amount to a Revolution in the form of its Government. The authority is in itself suspicious; but it coincides with a variety of proofs that the spirit of liberty has made a progress which must lead to some remarkable conclusion of the scene. The Dutch patriots seem to have been the victims, partly of their own folly, and partly of something amiss in their friends. The present state of that Confederacy is, or ought to be, a very / emphatic lesson to the United States. The want of union and a capable Government is the source of all their calamities, and particularly of that dependence on foreign powers which is as dishonorable to their character as it is destructive of their tranquillity.